As we hit the quarter pole of the abbreviate season, I thought I would take a look at my Oilers Hackathon question 4 predictions. We are only talking about 15% of a normal 82 game regular season, so I won’t get too excited or too despondent at this stage.
1. For the 2012-2013 season, 12 of the top 16 teams in the wPP%d metric will make the playoffs.
2. The Detroit Red Wings will finish out of the top 16 in wPP%d and will miss the playoffs.
3. The New York Islanders will finish in the top 16 in wPP%d and will make the playoffs.
4. The Edmonton Oilers will make the playoffs if they are around league average in PP shooting percentage (no more than 1% higher) and in the top 16 in wPP%d.
I will link you to a couple of posts that has all the work that went into my predictions. PP%d is the difference between the power play success percentage and 1 minus the penalty kill success rate. So if your PP runs at 20% and your PK is at 75%, your PP%d is 5%.
The PPd is the difference between total power plays and total penalty kill opportunities. If the Oilers took 150 penalties and had 100 power plays, the PPd would be -50.
I then convert those two into league rankings and blend them together, 25% of the PPd ranking and 75% of the PP%d ranking. That is the wPP%d figure which is then compared to the league average.
Jeez, as I write that I think I should have just stayed with PP%d. Easy to compute and almost as predictive as wPP%d.
Below is a bit of a nasty table with the special team results through Tuesday night. For point totals, I prorated to a 48 game schedule to accommodate for differing number of games played.
For prediction #1, currently 9 of the top 16 are in the playoffs, with four more teams just outside of the playoffs. Anaheim, Carolina and Detroit are three teams well in playoff position that have had middling special team results thus far. Columbus and the Islanders are two teams with good special team play but a familiar location in the standings. I don’t think it is necessary fair to assume that the position is the standings will regress based on the special team rankings. The Islanders aren’t going to score on 25% of the power plays, nor are they going to kill 90% of penalties over the season.
For predictions #2 and #3, I am correct for both the Islanders and Red Wings in terms of wPP%d. The Islanders lead the league, while the Red Wings are 24th. That has not yet translated to position in the standings, with the Red Wings up near the top and the Islanders right near the bottom.
As for the Oilers, their PP shooting percentage is 18.9% on the season, well above a typical league average of 12-13%. After a pretty good start, they are on their way down the standings. I don’t think they look like a playoff team most nights.
All in all, it isn’t looking so great for my submission, but it is very early.
I believe the Oilers will publish how entrants are doing on questions 1 through 3, so I will maybe comment on that next week.